Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Selonsertib (GS-4997) in Participants With Diabetic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagetype diabetesmay applycriteria maytransplantation
  Phrases that lowered it: participantseffect ofthe effectmgkidney disease
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Selonsertib in Participants With Moderate to Advanced Diabetic Kidney Disease NCT04026165 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin With and Without Saxagliptin on Albuminuria, and to Investigate the Effect of Dapagliflozin and Saxagliptin on HbA1c in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and CKD NCT02547935 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Lorundrostat in Addition to Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors (SGLT2i) in Subjects With Hypertension and Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) With Albuminuria NCT06150924 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• TreatIng Microalbuminuria Over 24 Weeks in Subjects With or Without Type 2 Diabetes or HYpertension NCT05268926 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Crossover Study of Atrasentan in Subjects With IgA Nephropathy NCT05834738 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.