ModraDoc006/r vs Docetaxel IV in Metastatic Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-29, after 2019-07-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: brainsubjects withcancerulnevidence
Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andevaluate theto evaluatethe efficacyaccording -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14954 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 50824 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14954 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- ModraDoc006/r in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03136640 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Oral Docetaxel (ModraDoc/r) in Combination With Hormonal Treatment and Radiation Therapy in High-risk Prostate Cancer NCT03066154 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
- ODM-201 Maintenance Therapy in Patients With mCRPC Previously Treated With Novel Hormonal Agents. NCT02933801 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of Therapies for Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) NCT04631601 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
- Extreme Bipolar Androgen Therapy With Darolutamide and Testosterone Cypionate in Patients With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (ExBAT Trial) NCT04558866 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.