Safety and Efficacy of Therapies for Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-10-23, after 2021-01-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticheartcancertherapyacute
Phrases that lowered it: efficacyindexparticipantshistory orsafety -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 69 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 11 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 14 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 589 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 69 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 72261 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7288 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abiraterone, acapatamab, enzalutamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Biomarker Analysis of Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Undergoing Bipolar Androgen Therapy NCT04424654 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Ipatasertib Plus Abiraterone Plus Prednisone/Prednisolone, Relative to Placebo Plus Abiraterone Plus Prednisone/Prednisolone in Adult Male Patients With Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03072238 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- ESK981 and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT04159896 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- Enzalutamide and Niclosamide in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03123978 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Enzalutamide Versus Placebo Plus Enzalutamide in Participants With Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) (MK-3475-641/KEYNOTE-641) NCT03834493 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.