Aspirin for the Treatment of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (39 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagebiopsytransplantationor equalimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholaspirinconsumptionvisitinflammatory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 888 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 471536 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 201 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Impact of Fructose on Metabolism, Energy Homeostasis and Magnetic Resonance Biomarkers in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT01930123 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• The Impact of Ibutamoren on Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT05364684 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• The Farnesoid X Receptor (FXR) Ligand Obeticholic Acid in NASH Treatment Trial(FLINT) NCT01265498 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of AZD2693 in Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis Patients NCT04483947 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerability of Lubiprostone in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT05768334 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.