A Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of AZD2693 in Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (176 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingtransplantmultiplemricontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantpharmacokineticsinvestigateaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1632 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate AZD2693 in Participants Who Are Carriers of the PNPLA3 148M Risk Allele With Non-cirrhotic Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis With Fibrosis NCT05809934 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Knockdown of HSD17B13 mRNA, Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability, of AZD7503 in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT05560607 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of EDP-305 in Subjects With Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT03421431 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Selonsertib, Firsocostat, and Cilofexor in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT02781584 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• AURORA: A Study for the Efficacy and Safety of Cenicriviroc (CVC) for the Treatment of Liver Fibrosis in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03028740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.