A Study to Evaluate AZD2693 in Participants Who Are Carriers of the PNPLA3 148M Risk Allele With Non-cirrhotic Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis With Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1795 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityfibrosisnonrisksafety and
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantthe efficacyto evaluateevaluate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of AZD2693 in Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis Patients NCT04483947 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study in Participants With Non-cirrhotic NASH With Fibrosis NCT05638737 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of AZD7503 in Participants With Suspected NASH. NCT05864391 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Knockdown of HSD17B13 mRNA, Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability, of AZD7503 in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT05560607 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• AURORA: A Study for the Efficacy and Safety of Cenicriviroc (CVC) for the Treatment of Liver Fibrosis in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03028740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.