Griffithsin-based Rectal Microbicide for PREvention of Viral ENTry (PREVENT)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorto screeningdiagnosismonthssymptomatic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantshealthymaleproducts
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Oral Maraviroc and Maraviroc 1% Gel in HIV-1 Seronegative Adults NCT02346084 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Three Different Formulations of Tenofovir 1% Gel When Administered Rectally NCT01575405 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Rectal Safety and Acceptability Study of Tenofovir 1% Gel NCT01232803 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Dapivirine Gel (0.05%) Administered Rectally to HIV-1 Seronegative Adults NCT03239483 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Rectal Microbicide Safety and Acceptability Trial of Topically Applied Tenofovir Compared With Oral Tablet NCT00984971 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.