rVA576 in Adult Mild to Moderate Bullous Pemphigoid Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-04-29, after 2018-09-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breasthepatitispositivemoderatenegative
Phrases that lowered it: screeningefficacyevaluate theecgpatients -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of Safety, Efficacy and Pharmacodynamic Effect of Bertilimumab in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT02226146 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- A Proof-of-Concept Study of Topical AC-203 in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT03286582 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Investigate the Use of Benralizumab in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid. NCT04612790 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
- A Phase 2/3 Study of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adult Participants With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT05267600 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Pilot Efficacy and Safety Study of Oral DF2156A in Patients With Active Bullous Pemphigoid NCT01571895 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.