A Phase 2/3 Study of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adult Participants With Bullous Pemphigoid

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomaplacebo controlledsiturandomized double
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsinvestigatethe efficacyadult
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 362710 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 41598 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of a Subcutaneous Formulation of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adults With Pemphigus (Vulgaris or Foliaceus) NCT04598451 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Use of Benralizumab in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid. NCT04612790 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of a Subcutaneous Formulation of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adults With Pemphigus (Vulgaris or Foliaceus) NCT04598477 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• rVA576 in Adult Mild to Moderate Bullous Pemphigoid Subjects NCT04035733 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adult Participants With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT05681481 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.