A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of a Subcutaneous Formulation of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adults With Pemphigus (Vulgaris or Foliaceus)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pfhepatitisdiseaseprednisoneadministration
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyparticipanttrialeffectinvestigate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 297991 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 49595 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2/3 Study of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adult Participants With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT05267600 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of a Subcutaneous Formulation of Efgartigimod in Adults With Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP, an Autoimmune Disorder That Affects the Peripheral Nerves) NCT04281472 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, PD, PK and Efficacy of ARGX-113 in Patients With Pemphigus NCT03334058 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Rituximab Versus Mycophenolate Mofetil (MMF) in Participants With Pemphigus Vulgaris (PV) NCT02383589 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of a Subcutaneous Formulation of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adults With Pemphigus (Vulgaris or Foliaceus) NCT04598477 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.