Phase 2 Study of Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Versus Physician's Choice in Locally Advanced or Metastatic ER-positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerestrogenadvancedreceptortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe pharmacokineticsevaluateopen labelcompare the
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 955 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 86265 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Plus Palbociclib as First Line Therapy for Patients With ER (+) HER2(-) Advanced Breast Cancer NCT04478266 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Window Study of SAR439859 (Amcenestrant) Versus Letrozole in Post-menopausal Patients With ER+, HER2- Pre-operative Post-menopausal Primary Breast Cancer NCT04191382 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Study of Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Versus Tamoxifen for Patients With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+) Early Breast Cancer, Who Have Discontinued Adjuvant Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy Due to Treatment-related Toxicity NCT05128773 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1/2 Study of Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Single Agent and in Combination With Other Anti-cancer Therapies in Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03284957 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Combined With Abemaciclib in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT04432454 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.