Phase 1/2 Study of Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Single Agent and in Combination With Other Anti-cancer Therapies in Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2breast cancereradvancedendocrine therapy
  Phrases that lowered it: effectcombinationparticipantsweeks beforeline
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 882 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12489 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• TEEL Study- Phase 1 Tamoxifen and Ribociclib (LEE011) in Advanced ER+ (HER2 Negative) Breast Cancer NCT02586675 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of BEBT-209 in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT06047184 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Versus Physician's Choice in Locally Advanced or Metastatic ER-positive Breast Cancer NCT04059484 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of GSK525762 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Participants With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02964507 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized Study of AZD2014 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02216786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.