TEEL Study- Phase 1 Tamoxifen and Ribociclib (LEE011) in Advanced ER+ (HER2 Negative) Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2chemotherapypriortamoxifen
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasespositivetabletsparticipantstest
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 31.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy of Ribociclib After Progression on CDK4/6 Inhibition in Patients With HR+ HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02632045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Combined With Abemaciclib in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT04432454 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Hormone Receptor Positive Disease Across Solid Tumor Types: A Phase I Study of Single-Agent Hormone Blockade and Combination Approaches With Targeted Agents to Provide Synergy and Overcome Resistance NCT01197170 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Hormonal Therapy Plus Palbociclib in Operable, Hormone Sensitive and HER2-Negative Primary Breast Cancer NCT03969121 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.