Neoadjuvant Hormonal Therapy Plus Palbociclib in Operable, Hormone Sensitive and HER2-Negative Primary Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerbowelchroniculnrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: drugsdrugpatients whograpefruitclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9682 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Letrozole and Trastuzumab in Stage II-III ER+ HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02907918 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• TEEL Study- Phase 1 Tamoxifen and Ribociclib (LEE011) in Advanced ER+ (HER2 Negative) Breast Cancer NCT02586675 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• A Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Tamoxifen as Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02384239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Neadjuvant Multi-agent Chemotherapy or Letrozole Plus Ribociclib in Luminal B/HER2-negative Breast Cancer. NCT03248427 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.