Hormone Receptor Positive Disease Across Solid Tumor Types: A Phase I Study of Single-Agent Hormone Blockade and Combination Approaches With Targeted Agents to Provide Synergy and Overcome Resistance

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatients mustmonthsbevacizumabdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: advancedtumorssolidstandard therapymm
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 252 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 16 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7838 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 27872 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• TEEL Study- Phase 1 Tamoxifen and Ribociclib (LEE011) in Advanced ER+ (HER2 Negative) Breast Cancer NCT02586675 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• AZD4547 & Anastrozole or Letrozole (NSAIs) in ER+ Breast Cancer Patients Who Have Progressed on NSAIs (RADICAL) NCT01791985 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Reversing Hormone Resistance in Advanced Breast Cancer With Pazopanib NCT01466972 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Tamoxifen Citrate or Letrozole With or Without Bevacizumab in Treating Women With Stage IIIB or Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT00601900 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.