A Two-Part Infant Study for Early Diagnosis of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Evaluation of JNJ-53718678 in RSV Acute Respiratory Tract Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acuterandomizationor equalequal toto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: participantrespiratoryevaluate thepharmacokineticsto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 0.33 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 405 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Safety and Antiviral Activity of Doses of JNJ-53718678 in Children (>=28 Days to <=3 Years) With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection NCT03656510 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Explore the Antiviral Activity, Clinical Outcomes, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of JNJ-53718678 at Two Dose Levels in Non-Hospitalized Adult Participants Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus NCT03379675 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of Multiple Doses of Orally Administered JNJ-53718678 in Infants Hospitalized With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection NCT02593851 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Antiviral Activity, Clinical Outcomes, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered Lumicitabine (JNJ-64041575) Regimens in Hospitalized Infants and Children Aged 28 Days to 36 Months Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus NCT03333317 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Rilematovir in Infants and Children and Subsequently in Neonates Hospitalized With Acute Respiratory Tract Infection Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) NCT04583280 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.