A Study to Explore the Antiviral Activity, Clinical Outcomes, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of JNJ-53718678 at Two Dose Levels in Non-Hospitalized Adult Participants Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationor equalequal toinfectionsurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsrespiratoryeffect ofnasal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Antiviral Activity, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Repeated Doses of Orally Administered JNJ 53718678 Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection. NCT02387606 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety and Antiviral Activity of Doses of JNJ-53718678 in Children (>=28 Days to <=3 Years) With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection NCT03656510 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of Multiple Doses of Orally Administered JNJ-53718678 in Infants Hospitalized With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection NCT02593851 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Two-Part Infant Study for Early Diagnosis of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Evaluation of JNJ-53718678 in RSV Acute Respiratory Tract Disease NCT04068792 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Antiviral Activity, Clinical Outcomes, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered Lumicitabine (JNJ-64041575) Regimens in Hospitalized Infants and Children Aged 28 Days to 36 Months Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus NCT03333317 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.