Traditional Chinese Medicine Formula Liu-Wei-Die-Huang-Wan in the Treatment of Osteoarthritis.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-10-31, after 2012-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breastcancerchemotherapystablenon
Phrases that lowered it: osteoarthritisand safetyefficacy andweeksweek -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Traditional Chinese Medicine Formula in the Treatment of Osteoarthritis of Knees or Hips. NCT04110847 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- The Efficacy and Safety of Fang yi Qing Feng Shi Granules in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02029599 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Chinese Herbal Medicine Qing Re Huo Xue in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT04170504 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- The Efficacy and Safety of Curcuma Domestica Extracts and Ibuprofen in Knee Osteoarthritis NCT00792818 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Qing'E Formula Therapy on Menopausal Symptoms NCT01805765 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.