Testing the Addition of an Anti-cancer Drug, Copanlisib, to the Usual Maintenance Treatment (Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab) After Initial Chemotherapy in a Phase Ib/II Trial for Advanced HER2 Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients musther2breast cancerpriorinstitutional
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvhepatitis virusinfectioncombinationrna
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1335 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8505 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Copanlisib in Association With Cetuximab in Patients With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinomas Harboring a PI3KCA Mutation/Amplification and/or a PTEN Loss NCT02822482 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Phase Ib/II Trial of coPANlisib in Combination With Trastuzumab in HER2-positive Breast Cancer. (Panther Study) NCT02705859 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of PI3K Inhibitor Copanlisib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Selected ER+ and/or PR+ Cancers With PI3K (PIK3CA, PIK3R1) and/or PTEN Alterations NCT05082025 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Open-Label Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of LJM716, BYL719 and Trastuzumab in Patients With Metastatic HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02167854 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Neratinib and Capmatinib Combination (Phase Ib/II) in Metastatic Breast Cancer and Inflammatory Breast Cancer Patients With Abnormal HER-family and c-Met Pathway Activity as Measured by the CELsignia Signaling Analysis Test NCT05243641 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.