Phase 2 Study of PI3K Inhibitor Copanlisib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Selected ER+ and/or PR+ Cancers With PI3K (PIK3CA, PIK3R1) and/or PTEN Alterations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientheartuncontrolledpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theto evaluatemaleand safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 192 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1082 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Testing the Addition of an Anti-cancer Drug, Copanlisib, to the Usual Maintenance Treatment (Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab) After Initial Chemotherapy in a Phase Ib/II Trial for Advanced HER2 Positive Breast Cancer NCT04108858 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/II Trial of coPANlisib in Combination With Trastuzumab in HER2-positive Breast Cancer. (Panther Study) NCT02705859 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy of Ribociclib After Progression on CDK4/6 Inhibition in Patients With HR+ HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02632045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of GSK525762 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Participants With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02964507 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.