ADalimumab in Persistent Early Oligoarthrits Study (ADEOS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: study isuse ofto assessboweldiagnosis of
  Phrases that lowered it: kneepatients whoosteoarthritisjointevaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Adalimumab for Inflammatory Osteoarthritis NCT00686439 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Effects of Different Doses of Methotrexate (MTX) When Taken With Adalimumab in Subjects With Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT01185301 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Investigating Clinical Efficacy of Ofatumumab in Adult Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Patients Who Had an Inadequate Response to TNF-α Antagonist Therapy NCT00603525 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Ocrelizumab in Combination With Methotrexate Compared With Infliximab Plus Methotrexate in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Currently Responding Inadequately to Etanercept or Adalimumab NCT00808210 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Fostamatinib Monotherapy Compared With Adalimumab Monotherapy in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT01264770 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.