A Study of LY3499446 in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors With KRAS G12C Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorstudy drugeffectivebe willingtumors
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthcriteriapregnantcontrol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1288 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 105459 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18368 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of LY3435151 in Participants With Solid Tumors NCT04099277 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Tarlox and Sotorasib in Patients With KRAS G12C Mutations NCT05313009 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I/IIa Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of AZD0022 as Monotherapy and in Combination With Anti-cancer Agents in Adult Participants With Tumours Harbouring a KRASG12D Mutation NCT06599502 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• A Study of LY2801653 in Advanced Cancer NCT01285037 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• First-in-Human Study of JNJ-74699157 in Participants With Tumors Harboring the KRAS G12C Mutation NCT04006301 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.