Tarlox and Sotorasib in Patients With KRAS G12C Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2smallegfrcell lungmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyand safetyulnmm3hepatic
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 81 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 386 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• VIC-1911 Monotherapy in Combination With Sotorasib for the Treatment of KRAS G12C-Mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT05374538 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics Study of Antroquinonol to Treat NSCLC NCT02047344 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Tivantinib Plus Erlotinib Versus Placebo Plus Erlotinib for the Treatment of Non-squamous, Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT01244191 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib Plus Tivantinib (ARQ 197) Versus Single Agent Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01395758 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Study to Find a Safe and Effective Dose of BI 1701963 Alone and in Combination With BI 3011441 in Patients With Advanced Cancer and a Certain Mutation (Kirsten Rat Sarcoma Viral Oncogene Homologue [KRAS]) NCT04835714 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.