A Study to Find a Safe and Effective Dose of BI 1701963 Alone and in Combination With BI 3011441 in Patients With Advanced Cancer and a Certain Mutation (Kirsten Rat Sarcoma Viral Oncogene Homologue [KRAS])
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-01-18, after 2021-04-20 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbipurposepriorchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: mmhgparticipantshypertensionulnpressure -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 638 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 638 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 83 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Test Different Doses of BI 1701963 in Combination With Irinotecan in People With Advanced Bowel Cancer With Kirsten Rat Sarcoma Viral Oncogene Homologue (KRAS) Mutation NCT04627142 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 3706674 Are Tolerated by People With Advanced Cancer in the Stomach and Oesophagus NCT06056024 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Monotherapy Dose Finding With BI 847325 in Solid Tumours NCT01324830 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Study to Find a Suitable Dose of BI 1821736 and Test Whether it Helps People With Advanced Cancer NCT05839600 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
- Phase I Trial of BI 836845 for Various Solid Cancer NCT01403974 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.