Effect of Probiotics in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Steatohepatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (39 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjecteffect ofassess theexercisethe effect
  Phrases that lowered it: colitisgastrointestinalchemotherapypatientscrohn
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 40% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Probiotic on Inflammation and Microbiota in Patients With NASH NCT03511365 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Elobixibat in Combination With Cholestyramine for Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT04235205 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• AURORA: A Study for the Efficacy and Safety of Cenicriviroc (CVC) for the Treatment of Liver Fibrosis in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03028740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Monotherapy and Combination Regimens in Participants With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03987074 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Selonsertib, Firsocostat, Cilofexor, and Combinations in Participants With Bridging Fibrosis or Compensated Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03449446 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.