Extension Study to Assess Effects of Non-interrupted Versus Interrupted and Long Term Treatment of Two Dose Regimes of Secukinumab in Subjects With Hidradenitis Suppurativa

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectmoderate toto severetolerabilitycore
  Phrases that lowered it: periodresponsetreatmentefficacyevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 32.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1297 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 68249 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy and Safety of Two Secukinumab Dose Regimens in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) NCT03713632 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• This Was a Study of Efficacy and Safety of Two Secukinumab Dose Regimens in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS). NCT03713619 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating Long-term Treatment With Spesolimab in People With a Skin Disease Called Hidradenitis Suppurativa Who Completed a Previous Clinical Trial NCT04876391 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-concept Study Evaluating Subcutaneous Amlitelimab in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT06118099 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics Study of CJM112 in Hidradenitis Suppurativa Patients NCT02421172 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.