Proof-of-concept Study Evaluating Subcutaneous Amlitelimab in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosisleftplacebodouble blindtreatment
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantpharmacokineticsmoderateperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1073 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 69 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Assess the Efficacy and Safety of INCB054707 in Participants With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04476043 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SAR444656 Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT06028230 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Lunsayil 1: A Study to Test Whether Spesolimab Helps People With a Skin Disease Called Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT05819398 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Studying Complement Inhibition in Patients With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT03001622 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• ATI-450 vs Placebo in Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) NCT05216224 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.