A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SAR444656 Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomaheartstagecellventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate theto evaluateadult
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1069 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lunsayil 1: A Study to Test Whether Spesolimab Helps People With a Skin Disease Called Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT05819398 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Efficacy and Safety of SAR442970 in Adults With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT05849922 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Spesolimab Helps People With a Skin Disease Called Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04762277 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-concept Study Evaluating Subcutaneous Amlitelimab in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT06118099 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Bermekimab in Patients With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04019041 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.