A Study to Test the Efficacy and Safety of SAR442970 in Adults With Hidradenitis Suppurativa

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1058 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leftcelltransplantplacebobaseline
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantvaccineantibioticsto severe
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SAR444656 Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT06028230 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Studying Complement Inhibition in Patients With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT03001622 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study of Adalimumab in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT00918255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Bermekimab in Patients With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04019041 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Spesolimab Helps People With a Skin Disease Called Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04762277 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.