Effect of Ketamine Intranasal Spray in Treatment of Chronic Cluster Headache

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicsolutionsevereat timepressure
  Phrases that lowered it: rhinitisthe effectmedical historyeffect ofmg
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• THINK Trial: Treatment of Headache With IntraNasal Ketamine: A Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluating the Efficacy of Intranasal Ketamine Versus Standard Therapy in the Management of Primary Headache Syndromes in the Emergency Department NCT03081416 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study Evaluating the Use of Nasal Carbon Dioxide for the Treatment of Cluster Headache NCT02381795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• A Pilot Study of Intranasal Lidocaine in Acute Management of Pediatric Migraine NCT03806595 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Nasal Carbon Dioxide for the Symptomatic Treatment of Classical Trigeminal Neuralgia NCT02473016 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• The CHECK Trial: A Comparison of Headache Treatment in the Emergency Department: Compazine Versus Ketamine NCT02735343 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.