A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of CKD-506 in Adult Subjects With Moderate-to-Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to Methotrexate

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorweeksstableto screeningleast 12
  Phrases that lowered it: rahepatitis virusmoderateevaluate theto evaluate
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of CC-292 Versus Placebo as Co-therapy With Methotrexate in Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01975610 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study of JNJ-40346527 in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug Therapy NCT01597739 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT01554696 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Given With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to MTX Alone NCT02066389 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Monotherapy to Methotrexate (MTX) Monotherapy in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have Not Previously Taken Methotrexate NCT02706873 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.