PK and Safety of SI-722 in IC/BPS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerplacebo controlledgreaterinterstitialblind placebo
  Phrases that lowered it: the pharmacokineticssingleevaluate theto evaluatetrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of V117957 in Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome NCT06285214 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pain Relieving Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of JNJ-42160443 for the Relief of Bladder Pain NCT01060254 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• An Effectiveness And Safety Study Of PD 0299685 For The Treatment Of Symptoms Associated With Interstitial Cystitis NCT00739739 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of IW-3300 for the Treatment of Bladder Pain in Subjects With Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome NCT05740007 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Bladder Instillations Versus Onabotulinumtoxin A for Treatment of Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome NCT04401176 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.