A Phase 2 Study of IW-3300 for the Treatment of Bladder Pain in Subjects With Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-02-06, after 2023-03-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paincancersubject hascolorectaltumors
Phrases that lowered it: subjectsdrugtolerabilitypast monthsdays or -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 24 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Pain Relieving Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of JNJ-42160443 for the Relief of Bladder Pain NCT01060254 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
- PK and Safety of SI-722 in IC/BPS NCT04208087 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Study of V117957 in Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome NCT06285214 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Study Comparing Placebo and ASP3652 in the Treatment of Women With Bladder Pain Syndrome / Interstitial Cystitis (BPS/IC) NCT01613586 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Engage 24: Evaluation of the Safety and Effectiveness of URG101 in Subjects With Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome NCT02591199 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.