Safety and Tolerability Study of Cotadutide in Japanese Obese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Melitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartsubjectcoronarysubjectsrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholjapanesemgdrugsproduct
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1585 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chinese Multiple Dose Escalation (MDE) High Dose Study NCT05437848 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of MEDI0382 in Overweight and Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03745937 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study in Type 2 Diabetics of Single and Multiple Doses of Orally Administered GSK1292263 to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics NCT01119846 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of Single and Multiple Doses of Oral Insulin or Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02954601 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Different Doses of 0382 in Overweight and Obese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. NCT03244800 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.