Chinese Multiple Dose Escalation (MDE) High Dose Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1711 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetescellsubjectsubjects withbasal
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsat screeningmmhgevaluate theto evaluate
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 198 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 74 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Tolerability Study of Cotadutide in Japanese Obese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Melitus NCT04208620 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of MEDI0382 in Overweight and Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03745937 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study of Single and Multiple Doses of Oral Insulin or Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02954601 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study of CJC-1134-PC Injection in Antidiabetic Treatment-naive Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Inadequate Glycemic Control NCT07058545 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of VCT220 in Obesity Chinese Population NCT06569355 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.