Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Placebo in Participants With Esophageal Carcinoma Who Are Receiving Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy (MK-3475-975/KEYNOTE-975)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-06-23, after 2020-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapyprostatecelltumors
Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacy -
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 126 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 198394 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 32456 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1272 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1272 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 126 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 6 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 198394 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 32456 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, fluorouracil, leucovorin, levoleucovorin, oxaliplatin, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- First-line Esophageal Carcinoma Study With Pembrolizumab Plus Chemo vs. Chemo (MK-3475-590/KEYNOTE-590) NCT03189719 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Lenvatinib (E7080/MK-7902) Plus Chemotherapy in Participants With Metastatic Esophageal Carcinoma (MK-7902-014/E7080-G000-320/LEAP-014). NCT04949256 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and MK-3475 for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ACTS-29) NCT02844075 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Previously-Treated Participants With Advanced Carcinoma of the Esophagus or Esophagogastric Junction (MK-3475-180/KEYNOTE-180) NCT02559687 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Chemotherapy Versus Placebo Plus Chemotherapy in Participants Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction (GEJ) Adenocarcinoma (MK-3475-859/KEYNOTE-859) NCT03675737 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.