A Multinational, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Assess the Efficacy, Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of Venglustat in Late-onset GM2

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: onsetpatientsecondaryassessdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsperiodonce dailymale
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• N-Acetyl-L-Leucine for GM2 Gangliosidosis (Tay-Sachs and Sandhoff Disease) NCT03759665 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Eliglustat With or Without Imiglucerase in Pediatric Patients With Gaucher Disease (GD) Type 1 and Type 3 NCT03485677 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, and Exploratory Efficacy of GZ/SAR402671 in Treatment-naïve Adult Male Patients With Fabry Disease NCT02228460 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Oral AZ-3102 in Patients With GM2 Gangliosidosis or Niemann-Pick Type C Disease NCT05758922 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A 2-Part Trial in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes and in Healthy Subjects to Evaluate GSK1614235, a New Glucose Lowering Drug to Treat Type 2 Diabetes NCT00976261 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.