Efficacy of INCMGA00012 in Penile Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ORPHEUS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-08-26, after 2020-04-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercelltumorstagesolid
Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateand safetyefficacy andevaluate thethe efficacy -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- retifanlimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial of Pembrolizumab for Advanced Penile Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02837042 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- A Study of AGEN2034 in Advanced Tumors and Cervical Cancer NCT03104699 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Study of AGEN1571 in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT05377528 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study of Zalifrelimab and Balstilimab for Treatment of Participants With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Solid Tumors, and Expansion Into Select Solid Tumors (Cervical) NCT03495882 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Advanced Melanoma With MK-3475 and Peginterferon NCT02112032 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.