Safety and Tolerance of Epigenetic and Immunomodulating Drugs Combined With Chemotherapeutics in Patients Suffering From Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustpaclitaxelin combinationcombination withventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: druginflammatorylenalidomidedays beforefirst dose
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 47894 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 311937 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Azacitidine and Durvalumab in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02811497 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• BMS-813160 With Nivolumab and Gemcitabine and Nab-paclitaxel in Borderline Resectable and Locally Advanced Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) NCT03496662 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Study of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab After Radiation for Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Progressing on Chemotherapy NCT03007407 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• SGI-110 Plus Durvalumab/Tremelimumab in SCLC NCT03085849 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• SAR439459 and Cemiplimab for the Treatment of Advanced or Unresectable Solid Tumors, Strategic Alliance, TACTIC TRIAL NCT04729725 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.