A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Pitolisant in Patients With Prader-Willi Syndrome, Followed by an Open Label Extension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpriorpatientsmshormone
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateefficacyhours20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Pitolisant on Excessive Daytime Sleepiness and Other Non-Muscular Symptoms in Patients With Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 NCT04886518 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Pitolisant in Adult Patients With Idiopathic Hypersomnia NCT05156047 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Patient Narcoleptic Treated With BF2.649 (Pitolisant) in add-on to Sodium Oxybate (HARMONY IV) NCT01789398 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of E2086 Compared to Placebo and Active Comparator in Adult Participants With Narcolepsy Type 1 NCT06462404 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• DNS-7801 vs. Placebo in Parkinson's Disease NCT03306329 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.