A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of E2086 Compared to Placebo and Active Comparator in Adult Participants With Narcolepsy Type 1

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disordersdiseaseprobablechildbearing potentialor equal
  Phrases that lowered it: periodcrossoverdaysrespiratoryscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• This is a Study to Determine the Effect of Multiple Doses of an Investigational Drug, Taken by Mouth, in People With Narcolepsy-cataplexy. Accepting Both Males and Females Ages of 18 Years to 55 Years. This Study Will be Conducted in the US and Will Require Approximately 13 Weeks Participation. NCT05015673 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-group, Bayesian Adaptive Randomization Design, Dose Response Study of the Efficacy of E2006 in Adults and Elderly Subjects With Chronic Insomnia NCT01995838 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of 2 Dosage Strengths of Lemborexant (E2006) on a Multiple Sleep Latency Test in Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT02350309 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of JZP441 Compared With Placebo in Participants With Narcolepsy Type 1 NCT06961266 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacodynamics of Lemborexant in Korean Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT05594589 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.