Vitamin C Infusion for the Treatment of Severe 2019-nCoV Infected Pneumonia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-03-29, after 2020-02-14 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagepatientinfusionmalignancytherapy
Phrases that lowered it: respiratoryclinicaland safetyinfluenzainfected -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 251878 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 28179 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ascorbic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Administration of Intravenous Vitamin C in Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) and Decreased Oxygenation NCT04357782 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- SAFEty Study of Early Infusion of Vitamin C for Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Acute Lung Injury (SAFE EVICT CORONA-ALI) NCT04344184 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Convalescent Plasma vs Human Immunoglobulin to Treat COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04381858 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Lessening Organ Dysfunction With VITamin C - COVID-19 NCT04401150 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- COvid-19 and Vitamin D Supplementation: a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial of High Dose Versus Standard Dose Vitamin D3 in High-risk COVID-19 Patients (CoVitTrial) NCT04344041 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.