Convalescent Plasma vs Human Immunoglobulin to Treat COVID-19 Pneumonia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: admissionventilationindexand efficacycharacteristics
  Phrases that lowered it: immunoglobulininfectionpatientsand safetyefficacy and
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Early COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma in Patients Admitted for COVID-19 Infection NCT04375098 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Effects of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) on Coronavirus-associated Complications in Hospitalized Patients NCT04421404 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Antibody-containing Plasma thErapy NCT04361253 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• CONTAIN COVID-19: Convalescent Plasma to Limit COVID-19 Complications in Hospitalized Patients NCT04364737 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Convalescent Plasma Compared to the Best Available Therapy for the Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia NCT04358783 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.