Convalescent Plasma Compared to the Best Available Therapy for the Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsoxygento determinerandomizationevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetythe efficacysafety ofpatients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CONTAIN COVID-19: Convalescent Plasma to Limit COVID-19 Complications in Hospitalized Patients NCT04364737 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Convalescent Plasma of Covid-19 to Treat SARS-COV-2 a Randomized Doble Blind 2 Center Trial NCT04405310 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Early COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma in Patients Admitted for COVID-19 Infection NCT04375098 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Convalescent Plasma vs Human Immunoglobulin to Treat COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04381858 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Convalescent Plasma Therapy vs. SOC for the Treatment of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients NCT04345523 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.