Treatment With Human Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Severe Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-07-09, after 2020-03-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsorgantumorlungstem
Phrases that lowered it: 19and safetyjudgedefficacy andevaluate the -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- human serum
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia With Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells NCT04361942 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Cellular Immuno-Therapy for COVID-19 ARDS Randomized Clinical Trial NCT04865107 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Use of UC-MSCs for COVID-19 Patients NCT04355728 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- hCT-MSCs for COVID19 ARDS NCT04399889 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
- Study of Intravenous COVI-MSC for Treatment of COVID-19-Induced Acute Respiratory Distress NCT04903327 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.