Use of UC-MSCs for COVID-19 Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-10-31, after 2020-04-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lungcellsstemtransplantpatients
Phrases that lowered it: respiratory19historyaged20 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45994 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 45994 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5381 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- heparin, mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment With Human Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Severe Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) NCT04288102 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Cellular Immuno-Therapy for COVID-19 ARDS Randomized Clinical Trial NCT04865107 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Umbilical Cord Lining Stem Cells (ULSC) in Patients With COVID-19 ARDS NCT04494386 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Cell Therapy Using Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in SARS-CoV-2-related ARDS NCT04333368 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- hCT-MSCs for COVID19 ARDS NCT04399889 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.