Initial Pain Management in Pediatric Pancreatitis: Opioid vs. Non-Opioid

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (136 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: opioidpatientpancreatitispainanalgesia
  Phrases that lowered it: effectpatients whoinvestigate thehistorybleeding
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 296490 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 172 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 21 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Peripherally Acting µ-opioid Receptor Antagonists on Acute Pancreatitis NCT04743570 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Aggressive Versus Non-aggressive Goal-directed Fluid Resuscitation in Acute Pancreatitis NCT04381169 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• IV Ibuprofen for the Prevention of Post-ERCP Pancreatitis NCT02241512 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• A Multi-Center Study of the Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of IV Acetaminophen for the Treatment of Acute Pain in Pediatric Patients NCT01635101 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• IBUPAP Study for Pain Management in Children NCT03088800 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.