Effects of Peripherally Acting µ-opioid Receptor Antagonists on Acute Pancreatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (30 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutecancercontraceptiontreatingpancreas
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofinvestigate themoderateacting
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, digestive: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of Δ9-THC to Treat Chronic Abdominal Pain NCT01318369 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Initial Pain Management in Pediatric Pancreatitis: Opioid vs. Non-Opioid NCT04291599 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Indomethacin in Chronic Pancreatitis NCT04207060 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Study of EUR-1066 in Subjects With Chronic Pancreatitis, Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency and Chronic Abdominal Pain NCT01159119 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Ranging Study Evaluating Efficacy and Safety of NI-03 NCT02693093 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.