A 2-Part Trial of CVL-751 in Subjects With Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withmultiplesubjects whoin subjectsparkinson disease
  Phrases that lowered it: dayopenkgeffectlabel
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-label Trial to Evaluate Mass Balance of Tavapadon at Steady State in Healthy Subjects NCT04241393 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study of CST-2032 and CST-107 in Subjects With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Mild Dementia Due to Parkinson's or Alzheimer's Disease NCT05104463 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Dose-ranging Study to Investigate Efficacy of Buntanetap in Mild to Moderate AD NCT05686044 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of an Investigational Drug to See How it Affects the People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) Compared to an Approved Drug Used to Treat People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) NCT03391882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Flexible-Dose Trial in Early Parkinson's Disease (PD) NCT04223193 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.