A Dose-ranging Study to Investigate Efficacy of Buntanetap in Mild to Moderate AD
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-02-13, after 2023-04-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerplaceboevidenceqtclinically significant
Phrases that lowered it: participantspaintrialmoderatemale -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- buntanetap
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Double-blind Study to Investigate Efficacy and Safety of Buntanetap Compared With Placebo in Participants With Early PD NCT05357989 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- A Study of CST-2032 and CST-107 in Subjects With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Mild Dementia Due to Parkinson's or Alzheimer's Disease NCT05104463 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study of NE3107 in Probable Alzheimer's Disease NCT04669028 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Receptor Occupancy of BMS-984923 NCT04805983 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.